MARKET ANALYSIS · Beginner · 7 min read · 3 Nov 2026 · Navion Pro Research
How to Read an Economic Calendar: Forecast, Actual, Previous
An economic calendar lists the data releases and central bank decisions coming up each day. It is one of the simplest tools a trader can use, and one of the most useful. This guide explains how to read it.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk to your capital. Losses can exceed deposits. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Key Points
- An economic calendar shows when key data comes out, which country it covers and how much it tends to move markets.
- Each release has three numbers: the forecast, the actual and the previous.
- Prices often move on the gap between the forecast and the actual, not on the number itself.
- Spreads can widen and prices can jump around big releases. Check the calendar before you trade, every day.
What an economic calendar shows
Most calendars list each event in a row with the same set of columns:
| Column | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Time | When the figure is released. Set the calendar to your own time zone. |
| Country or currency | Which economy the figure covers, such as the US or the euro area |
| Event | What is being released, such as inflation, jobs or a rate decision |
| Impact | How much the release tends to move markets, often shown as low, medium or high |
| Forecast | What economists expect the figure to be |
| Actual | The real figure, filled in the moment it is released |
| Previous | The figure from the last release |
Forecast, actual and previous
Forecast. Before a release, economists send in their estimates. The calendar shows the middle of those estimates, often called the consensus. It tells you what the market already expects.
Actual. This is the real figure. It appears the moment the data is published.
Previous. This is the figure from the last release, so you can see whether things are getting better or worse. Sometimes the previous figure is revised when new information comes in. A big revision can move prices as much as the new figure.
Why the surprise matters most
Markets try to price in what they expect before it happens. So when a figure comes out exactly as forecast, prices may barely move. When it comes out well above or below the forecast, prices can move fast.
Traders often react less to whether a number is good or bad, and more to whether it is better or worse than expected.
An example: reading an inflation release
This example is for illustration only.
The calendar shows US inflation for the month: forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%. When the data comes out, the actual figure is 0.5%.
- Inflation came in well above the forecast, a surprise of 0.2 percentage points.
- Higher inflation can mean interest rates stay higher for longer.
- In this case, traders might buy the US dollar and sell gold, which pays no interest.
If the actual had come in at 0.3%, matching the forecast, the move might have been small, because the market already expected it.
| If the actual is | Then the market often |
|---|---|
| Close to the forecast | Moves little, because the figure was expected |
| Well above the forecast for inflation or jobs | Prices in higher rates, which can lift the currency and weigh on gold and stocks |
| Well below the forecast for inflation or jobs | Prices in lower rates, which can weigh on the currency and lift gold and stocks |
| Mixed, with a big revision to the previous figure | Reacts to the full picture, so the first move can reverse |
A pattern, not a rule.
The releases that move markets most
- Interest rate decisions. Central bank decisions, and what policymakers say afterwards, can move every major market.
- Inflation. Consumer price figures shape what central banks may do next.
- Jobs. In the US, the monthly jobs report is one of the most watched releases of the month.
- Growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) shows how fast an economy is growing or shrinking.
- Business surveys. Purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys give an early read on how businesses are doing.
- Commodity data. Weekly US crude oil stock figures can move oil prices.
Many major US releases come out at 8:30 New York time. That is 19:00 IST in the northern winter and 18:00 IST when the US is on daylight saving time.
Planning your trading around the calendar
- Check the calendar at the start of each day. Note any high impact releases for the markets you trade.
- Know what is expected. Look at the forecast and the previous figure before the release, not after.
- Expect wider spreads. Around big releases, spreads can widen and prices can jump past your order levels, causing slippage.
- Review open trades. Decide whether to hold, reduce or close a position before a big release, rather than in the moment.
- Wait if you are unsure. Many traders let the first move settle before deciding what to do.
Risk disclosure: Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This brief is for information and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation or an instruction to buy or sell anything. The likely market reactions described here are our assessments of what could happen, not predictions, and markets can and often do move differently. Figures and forecasts come from third party sources and may change. Make your own decisions, and consider independent advice if you are unsure.
